Pacers-Bucks series preview: Familiar foes meet for a first-round postseason rematch

On March 15, when the Milwaukee Bucks and Indiana Pacers met for the final time this regular season, it was the 15th time the two teams had played each other in a little more than 16 months. After a playoff series last season and plenty of regular-season drama the last two seasons, Bucks coach Doc Rivers was asked if he noticed the two teams in medium-sized Midwest markets treating each other as rivals.

“I think the two medium markets notice, I don’t know if anyone else notices,” Rivers joked. “But I think when you’re in a playoff series with a team and multiple years, I think it kind of organically happens. I definitely think there is something there and that’s good.

“I think rivalries are great, personally. You can’t just make ’em up though. They have to happen and I think this one is happening and this one is good.”

With another playoff series looming, these Central Division teams will get a chance to add to the rivalry they’ve developed over the last two seasons. To try to figure out what might happen in this series, our Milwaukee Bucks beat writer Eric Nehm got together with staff writer Shakeia Taylor, who will cover the Pacers throughout the postseason, to break it all down and take a closer look.

Eric Nehm: These two teams know each other well.

Last season, Tyrese Haliburton stole Damian Lillard’s Dame Time celebration in Las Vegas. Giannis Antetokounmpo scored a career-high 64 points and chased down the game ball in a hallway at Fiserv Forum. Lillard scored 35 first-half points in his Bucks postseason debut. This season, Haliburton pulled off a miracle four-point play on a crossing route out of an NFL game to beat Milwaukee in the closing seconds.

But all of those moments are in the past. It has been a month since these two teams last met. Shakeia, you have had a chance to spend some time around the Pacers in the last month, so I’m curious about what stands out to you about them heading into the postseason. From afar, it looks like they’re peaking at the right time.

Shakeia Taylor: They’re winners of 13 of their last 16 games since they played the Bucks on March 15, I would absolutely agree the Pacers are peaking at the right time. But they go however Haliburton goes and he’s key to sparking the offense. This season, Indiana is 25-3 when he scores 20 or more. And Haliburton had the longest double-double streak of his career (12) this season in the games he played from Feb. 23 to March 26.

They also have home-court advantage in the playoffs for the first time since 2014 when they were led by Paul George, George Hill, Lance Stephenson and Roy Hibbert. After going 29-11 at home this season, the second-best home record in the Eastern Conference behind the Cleveland Cavaliers, I expect that to be an important detail in this series where familiarity has certainly bred contempt.

Milwaukee’s health will play a big role in this series, how much does Lillard’s availability impact the Bucks’ ambitions?

Nehm: Lillard was spectacular this season, putting up numbers — 24.9 points and 7.1 assists per game with a 54.7 effective field goal percentage — that would have put him in All-NBA consideration, if not for the right calf deep vein thrombosis issue that kept him out for the final 14 regular-season games and puts his participation in this series in question. If the Bucks want to make a deep run in the postseason, they will need Lillard to return at some point.

However, I’m not sure his absence disqualifies the Bucks from pulling off the upset against the Pacers. The Bucks won their final eight regular-season games and seemed to stumble onto something with a game plan built entirely around Antetokounmpo, who finished the season playing some of the best basketball of his career. In 11 games without Lillard to end the season, Antetokounmpo averaged 31.2 points, 11.3 rebounds and 8.6 assists per game and he did so while only tallying 2.2 turnovers per game and shooting 61.2 percent from the field.

To be clear, Antetokounmpo put up 30.4 points, 11.9 rebounds and 6.5 assists per game this season, becoming the first person in NBA history to average at least 30 points, 10 rebounds and five assists in three different seasons, so he was incredible before this final stretch. This last stretch shows that he is capable of even more and that is what the Bucks will need in the postseason. The Pacers have struggled to slow Antetokounmpo down for years, which should give the two-time MVP a chance to make this an interesting series.

You already mentioned what Haliburton has been able to do, but I’m curious: Who do you think might be an X-factor in this series for the Pacers?

Taylor: I’d have to say it’s Pascal Siakam. Well, his right elbow rather. Siakam has been dealing with bursitis and missed some games toward the end of the regular season including the finale against Cleveland after originally being listed as available.

While the Pacers are likely prioritizing rest and recovery leading up to Saturday’s game, it’s important Siakam, a key contributor, is available and as close to fully healthy as possible. As Indiana’s leading scorer, he averaged 20.2 points, 6.9 rebounds and 3.4 assists per game while shooting 51.9 percent from the field and 38.9 percent from 3-point range.

In four games against Milwaukee this season, Siakam averaged 24 points and 8.5 rebounds. In last year’s playoff series against the Bucks, he scored 36 and 37 points in the first two games. Obi Toppin and Jarace Walker have been great in Siakam’s absence, but as the only Pacer to make the All-Star team this year, Siakam will bolster the team’s chances. He’s also their best defensive option against Antetokounmpo.

The Pacers cannot depend on a single star player to carry them, they need a collective effort to push this series to seven. But the Bucks’ supporting cast is important as well. What kind of impact will AJ Green, Gary Trent Jr. and Kevin Porter Jr. have against Indiana?

Nehm: I think you’ve correctly identified those three as the role players most likely to swing a game in the Bucks’ favor during this series. And they all have that ability for different reasons.

We’ll start with Porter because he has the opportunity to have the biggest impact. While Porter was once one of the top scoring options for a rebuilding Houston Rockets team, the Bucks have used him primarily off the bench since joining the team at the trade deadline. That more limited role has suited him well thus far. He has delivered serious scoring off the bench and also closed games to end the season. His increased comfortability in the two-man game with Antetokounmpo could be huge for the Bucks, but he will be high on the Pacers’ scouting report because of his performance to end the season. This will be his first career playoff appearance.

Trent could play an interesting role in this series because of his scoring acumen and defensive ability. All season, the Bucks have leaned on Trent for a scoring punch off the bench and hard-nosed defense. If the starters struggle to do the job defensively on Haliburton, Trent may end up getting the call.

While the Bucks don’t hunt for his shots the way other teams do, Green has been one of the NBA’s best shooters all season long. Despite having the full attention of every defense, Green has hit 42.7 percent from 3 while being forced to take many of those shots off movement to create any space for himself. If he gets hot, he could swing a game for the Bucks with his 3-point shooting.

You mentioned Siakam, Shakeia, but I wanted to dive a little deeper into his game. He has the best combination of size and strength of any Pacer to defend Antetokounmpo. Do you think he can handle taking the primary responsibility for defending the Bucks’ All-Star forward and also contribute what the Pacers need offensively? Or are the Pacers going to need to outsource the defensive workload to other players?

Taylor: This is a great question, Eric, and unfortunately it highlights what will be an issue for Indiana if the past is any indication. Siakam has defended Antetokounmpo for nearly 27 minutes over 130 partial possessions, the most of anyone in the league. But in that time Antetokounmpo has scored 47 points on 66.7 percent shooting. On the offensive side, Siakam scored 24 points (11-for-20) against Antetokounmpo over 21 minutes.

Myles Turner, the Pacers’ second defensive option against Antetokounmpo, allowed 38 points on 56 percent shooting in significantly less time (seven minutes and only 39 possessions).

The numbers show neither player is a complete solution to stopping Antetokounmpo and as a team, the Pacers are in the middle of the pack defensively with a 113.3 defensive rating. It will take a village to keep Antetokounmpo from lighting up Indiana. He’s not one of the best players in the world for no reason.

In last year’s playoff series between Milwaukee and Indiana, Bobby Portis was ejected from Game 4 in the first quarter and the Pacers took a 3-1 series lead. He returned earlier this month from a 25-game suspension and in his first game back he helped the Bucks rally from a 24-point deficit in a 110-103 victory over Minnesota. Is he the necessary spark for Milwaukee? What will he need to provide as the Bucks seek redemption?

Nehm: Portis will be an interesting player to watch in this series for his emotional leadership, but also because the pick-and-pop game of Haliburton and Turner can be difficult for Lopez to defend.

If Turner starts hitting shots, the Bucks might have to try Portis in a switching pick-and-roll coverage or use him in the zone defense that the Bucks have employed effectively over the last few weeks in lineups that feature Antetokounmpo with four bench players. His ability to bring something different than Lopez to the table may end up being a major storyline in this series.

Before we wrap this up and I ask you for a prediction, I wanted to see what you think Aaron Nesmith and Andrew Nembhard can bring to this series. Last playoffs, I came away impressed with their physicality, toughness and composure. They seem to be unafraid of the moment and capable of making the 50-50 plays every team needs to make a long playoff run.

Taylor: This season, Nesmith has only scored more than 20 points six times. All of them have been since March 2. Scoring isn’t his focus, but his ability to provide lockdown defense and take charges is what will make Nesmith valuable.

Nembhard, Indiana’s best on-ball defender, was named the Eastern Conference Defensive Player of the Month for January. He’s held Tyrese Maxey, De’Aaron Fox, and Stephen Curry under 50 percent shooting. Averaging 10.0 points, 3.3 rebounds and 5.0 assists, Nembhard’s had at least one steal in eight of the Pacers’ last 10 games.

As I mentioned previously, Indiana needs every player to be at their best to win, and Nesmith and Nembhard’s success will be key in keeping the Pacers competitive.

Prediction

Taylor: When it’s all said and done, I think home-court advantage and depth will matter. Indiana’s got a point to prove, though I don’t expect Milwaukee to go quietly. Pacers in seven.

Nehm: Antetokounmpo has been sidelined with injuries the last two postseasons, so he’ll be dying to prove what he can do on the biggest stage. I think he carries his team to an upset. Bucks in six.