MLB Draft notes: Why Jamie Arnold is a possible 1-1 pick, but Seth Hernandez likely isn’t

Yesterday I released my second MLB Draft prospect ranking of the year, this time with the list reaching 50 names. I’ve seen several top draft prospects over the last couple of weeks. Here’s a deeper look at some of the notable players I’ve scouted on those trips.

Arnold back on track after illness

Florida State lefty Jamie Arnold came into the year as the top southpaw in the class and the first- or second-best college starter, but he missed a start in March due to illness and had a couple of duds when he returned. Then he struck out 10 in five innings on April 4, throwing a lot of pitches but dominating for the first time since the missed outing, and on Saturday at Virginia Tech, he had his best overall start of the season on a 40-degree day.

Arnold comes from a very low slot, nearly sidearm, that will earn obvious comparisons to Chris Sale, but Arnold’s delivery might be easier than Sale’s, and Arnold’s pitch mix is very different. On Saturday, Arnold was 92-95, leaning more on the four-seamer, with very good ride on the pitch and huge deception from how well he hides his arm, a very low release point, and a slight cutoff in his landing. His slider was plus at 82-86 with good tilt to it and a lot of horizontal movement from the low slot, and his changeup wasn’t far behind, 85-87 with excellent arm speed and sudden tumble. He threw all three pitches for strikes, even with a tight zone from the umpire. He struck out nine and walked just two, the first of which was a very close call.

I didn’t like what I’d seen from Arnold’s delivery on video, but seeing it in person, I was floored by how easy it looked. He’s not working that hard to generate arm speed, and probably could throw harder if he maxed out — but he doesn’t need to, with all of that deception and two good secondary pitches. I don’t love guys who cut themselves off in their landings because they come back across their bodies; Arnold does that a little, but he’s not struggling to locate to his glove side. I might try to get him a little more online to the plate just to minimize any injury risk. That’s about the only quibble I have. It’s three pitches, plus control, at least average command, and the delivery is fine. He really shouldn’t get past the first three picks in this year’s draft.

Lodise red-hot for Florida State

On Saturday, Florida State shortstop Alex Lodise demolished a cutter from a lefty for a homer to left at 107 mph, continuing the tear he’s been on lately that saw him hit a walk-off grand slam against Florida that also happened to give him a cycle for the game. His plate discipline isn’t great, as he expands the zone more than you’d like to see in a bat-first prospect, but his fastball chases tend to be pretty close to the zone, and I have some hope he can cut that down with different coaching. His real issue is the slider away, and that might end up a fatal flaw.

There’s enough bat speed and power here to roll the dice in the second round. (Fun fact: He and his cousin Kyle, a shortstop at Georgia Tech, both rank in the top 20 in Division I in slugging percentage right now, and are in the top five among players in major conferences.)

Hernandez impresses but not a likely 1-1 candidate

Seth Hernandez has been up to 100 mph this spring, but the Corona (Calif.) High School right-hander was “only” 93-97 at the National High School Invitational at the USA Baseball Complex in Cary, N.C., last week. The velocity isn’t the big story — honestly, everyone throws hard, 95 is the new 90 — and if hitters were comfortable against anything he threw, it was the heater. He has exceptional secondary stuff, though, and that’s what makes him the best high school arm in the class. His curveball was 79-82 with a classic two-plane shape, while his changeup was easily plus, maybe a 70, at 79-84, with continuous downward tumble to it. He threw 21 changeups in the game, and he got 10 whiffs out of 14 swings. His mid-80s slider is his worst pitch, but still is probably average, with solid tilt to it, up to 87 mph.

Hernandez doesn’t stay over the rubber long, taking a big stride toward the plate that helps him generate so much arm speed. His arm is working hard to catch up and isn’t always on time, while there’s visible effort at release where he snaps his head, especially on fastballs.

I don’t think there’s any argument he should go 1-1, though, even in a weak class at the top, not with the effort in the delivery and not with the lack of life on the four-seamer. He’s not quite at Jackson Jobe’s level, and Jobe went third in 2021, a controversial pick at the time with Marcelo Mayer on the board. He might be at Noble Meyer’s level, and Meyer went 10th in 2023, only to struggle with control in pro ball to date. No high school right-hander has gone 1-1 in the draft, and given the high attrition rate of high school pitchers taken in the first round, none ever should, but I also don’t think Hernandez has the package to make the case for the defense.

Carlson has a special glove at shortstop

Corona High School is going to have two first-rounders — Hernandez and shortstop Billy Carlson, who looked like a wizard on defense this past week, with easy actions in any direction and a plus-plus arm. He has some latent power too, and there could be more power and just more hit in general if someone gets rid of his arm bar — he loads his hands so deep that his lead arm is totally straight, and you can see how much trouble he has loosening up and getting the bat to the zone on time as a result.

He has plenty of bat speed, and he made some adjustments within games and at-bats that are positive indicators for the development of his approach. He could be a 20-homer shortstop who’s plus-10 runs or better on defense.

Corona’s Ebel and Bingaman likely Day 2 picks

There are two more players on Corona who could end up Day 2 picks in third baseman Brady Ebel — who’d be at shortstop if he didn’t have Ozzie Smith next to him — and outfielder Ethin Bingaman.

Ebel didn’t have a great NHSI, drawing a lot of walks and only hitting one ball out of the infield in the three games I saw, with just average bat speed. Bingaman hit a walkoff double off an 88-mph fastball in the first game to save Corona, the 2024 NHSI champs, from a first-round exit, but overall, he struggled to control the zone, and he’s a well below-average runner who doesn’t have a clear position.

Neville’s breakout season continues for Oregon

On Monday morning, I dipped down to Tyson’s Corner to see Oregon play at Georgetown in an 11 a.m. start so I could catch Ducks center fielder Mason Neville, who is having a breakout season thanks to a big improvement in his swing decisions. He’s swinging less often overall, whiffing a lot less (33 percent last spring, 24 percent so far this year), and chasing less (16 percent to 12 percent on pitches beyond the shadow, or one ball past the strike zone).

Neville doubled on the first pitch he saw Monday, a 92-mph fastball that he lined into the right field corner, then walked, homered on a first-pitch slider from a lefty, struck out, and walked, taking two swings in total on the day.

He had a good swing in high school but his approach wasn’t ready for pro ball, and after a year at Arkansas where he barely played, he transferred to Eugene, where he’s made real progress as a hitter and gained some strength for more power as well. He’s a 55 runner (on the 20-80 scouting scale) as well and should stick in center, although he wasn’t very busy against the Hoyas, as Oregon won in seven innings via the run rule.

Notes on other top high school prospects, including Josh Hammond

Wesleyan Christian HS (High Point, N.C.) shortstop Josh Hammond is a two-way player who came on in relief in one game and was 95-97 with an 82-83 mph slider, but his future is as a hitter. He’s very strong, and I think the other teams took one look at him and decided not to risk throwing him strikes, as he saw more pitches out of the zone than in it and only swung at a third of the pitches he saw in the tournament.

He swings hard, with excellent bat speed but not enough bat control, although to his credit he didn’t chase a single pitch at NHSI: He saw 22 pitches out of the zone and swung at none of them. He played solid defense at short with a plus arm, of course.

Trinity Christian Academy (Jacksonville, Fla.) right-hander Aaron Watson might have had the most profitable NHSI, given how well he threw compared to what I’d heard about him going in. Watson was 91-96, throwing a high-ride four-seamer along with a two-seamer at the 91-92 level, along with two above-average secondary pitches in a hard slider with a ton of break along both axes and a split-change at 87-89. He threw a ton of strikes and got whiffs on both off-speed pitches, repeating his delivery well, although the high three-quarters slot doesn’t give him a ton of deception. He looks like a definite starter and could be someone’s second-round over-slot pick.

Poly Prep (Brooklyn, N.Y.) was here, continuing their world tour that also had them at the IMG Academy tournament about three weeks ago. Right-hander Justice De Jong was 89-91 with a cutter around 84-86 and an upper-70s curveball he wasn’t finishing. That probably doesn’t sound like much of a draft prospect. De Jong breezed through his outing, though, because he works very quickly and fills up the zone; about the only negative here was that he used the curveball too much to lefties when he should have used the cutter, which looks and functions a bit like a changeup for him.

He’s committed to Duke, and I doubt anyone’s going to pay him out of that when he’s all projection and command — but if his velocity creeps up at all, he’s going to be really good.

(Top photo of Arnold: Scott Kinser / USA Today Sports)